Industry Forecast Indicates Strong Optimism in Mountain Region for 2004

A recently released 2004 outlook for the mountain region indicates that for the second consecutive year, the area's construction industry leaders are optimistic about industry prospects. The mountain region includes Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.

The annual forecast was produced by CIT Equipment Finance, a unit of CIT Group Inc., a national commercial and consumer finance company.

The forecast's key benchmark - known as the "optimism quotient" - recorded the survey's largest jump of 20 points to 114 in the mountain region, which indicates strong optimism. The 2004 optimism quotient exceeds the region's five-year average of 94.

In general, mountain region contractors and distributors said they are "extremely upbeat" about the industry's outlook for 2004.

"Mountain region contractors are the most optimistic in the nation with regard to the construction market in 2004," said Norm Hall, vice president of CIT Equipment Finance. "Fifty-six percent predict an increase in construction activity and two-thirds anticipate more bidding opportunities.

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"When it comes to distributors in the region, 46% expect an increase in non-residential building while 44% think that residential construction is on the rise. Both contractors and distributors predict a better overall outlook for the construction business in 2004," Hall said.

Nationally, the 2004 Construction Industry Forecast's optimism quotient jumped 14 points -- from last year's 89 to 103 - the highest level since the 2000 forecast accurately predicted a softening in the U.S. construction industry.

The 16% spike in the overall 2004 optimism quotient represents the biggest one-year confidence rise in the 28-year history of the forecast. Nationally, the optimism quotient for contractors and distributors rose 13 and 16 points, respectively.

Now in its 28th year, the annual construction industry forecast independently surveys U.S. construction executives on their perceptions of the state of the industry and trends for the coming year. More than 900 contractors and equipment distributors were surveyed via telephone interviews across the country.

The forecast is conducted and published by CIT's Equipment Finance unit. Further information can be obtained at the company's Web site at www.cit.com or
www.efinance-it.com.

Key Questions

Contractors

What is your projection for construction activity in 2004 compared to 2003?
Increase 37%
No change 52%
Decrease 10%

What is your projection for bidding activity in 2004 compared to 2003?
Increase 49%
No change 41%
Decrease 10%

How do you view the overall business outlook for 2004 compared to 2003?
Better 46%
Equal to 45%
Worse than 10%

Distributors

What is your projection for residential construction activity in 2004 compared to 2003?
Increase 32%
No change 50%
Decrease 18%

What is your projection for non-residential construction activity in 2004 compared to 2003?
Increase 45%
No change 42%
Decrease 13%

How do you view the overall business outlook for 2004 compared to 2003?
Better 62%
Equal to 30%
Worse than 8%

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